Unemployment tipped to rise a little

10_Unemployment tipped to rise a little

Jason Cadden


(Australian Associated Press)

The jobs market is expected to have become a little weaker in November, after a stellar result the month before.

The number of Australians with a job is forecast to have fallen by 10,000 in November, after a rise of 58,600 in October.

The unemployment rate is tipped to rise to six per cent, according to an AAP survey of 12 economists.

That’s up from 5.9 per cent in October and down from 6.2 per cent in September.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release its November employment report on Thursday.

JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters said it was inevitable there’d be a weak month after such as strong result in October.

“Last month’s labour force survey looked too good to be true,” he said.

“While we have become increasingly optimistic on the outlook for the labour market, the strength in the October survey appears disconnected from Australia’s economic reality.”

Mr Walters said the leading labour market indicators, such as the NAB employment index and the ANZ job advertisement series, point to an unemployment rate just above six per cent.

The latest ANZ job ads survey, a key indicator of employment growth, showed that the total number of job advertisements rose 1.3 per cent in November, the fourth consecutive monthly rise.

ANZ’s co-head of Australian economics Felicity Emmett said most of the jobs growth had been in the labour intensive services sector.

Local tourism, hospitality, consumer, business and financial services are benefiting from the lower Australian dollar, which has fallen 10 US cents since the beginning of 2015.

“This was borne out in last week’s national accounts which showed ongoing subdued activity in a range of goods industries but strong growth across a range of services industries,” she said.

“This has been reflected in hiring and jobs growth.”


* Unemployment rate to rise to 6.0pct in October

* Employment growth is tipped to be 10,000

* Employment growth forecasts ranged from a fall of 20,000 to a flat result.

* Participation rate forecast to stay steady at 65.0pct

(Source: AAP survey of 12 economists)


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